ePUB Philip E. Tetlock ì Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction PDF ì

[Reading] ➯ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ➷ Philip E. Tetlock – African-american-literature.co From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists comes a seminal book on forecasting that shows for the first time how we can all get better at making predictions In Superforecasting TetFrom one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists comes a seminal book on forecasting that shows for the first time how we can all get better at making predictions In Superforecasting Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive government funded forecasting tournament The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people including a Brooklyn filmmaker a retired pipe installer and a former ballroom dancer who.

Set out to forecast global events Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good They've beaten other benchmarks competitors and prediction markets They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information They are superforecasters The authors show us how we can learn from this elite group Weaving together stories of forecasting successes the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound and failures the Bay of Pigs and interviews with a range of high level decisi.

superforecasting: download science mobile prediction epub Superforecasting: The epub Art and ebok Art and Science of pdf The Art and free The Art and Science of pdf Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBookSet out to forecast global events Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good They've beaten other benchmarks competitors and prediction markets They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information They are superforecasters The authors show us how we can learn from this elite group Weaving together stories of forecasting successes the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound and failures the Bay of Pigs and interviews with a range of high level decisi.

13 thoughts on “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

  1. Gordon Ritchie Gordon Ritchie says:

    ePUB Philip E. Tetlock ì Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction PDF ì superforecasting: download, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting: The epub, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and free, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBookTetlock has done some fascinating research for the US national security services to find that some individuals tend to be significantly better at forecasting the superforecasters than most others including the so called experts The focus is on relatively precise relatively short term forecasts that can therefore be measured The superforecasters tend to be foxes scanning their


  2. Dave the Rave Dave the Rave says:

    ePUB Philip E. Tetlock ì Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction PDF ì superforecasting: download, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting: The epub, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and free, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBookI must confess that I sprang from the same waters that the author did and so my rating may have been unduly influenced by my fond memories of seeing tenured professors scampering behind Daniel hoping to pick up a golden crumb by sitting next to him in the faculty club Although I was not part of the inner circle of lap dogs it was generally accepted that a year of eating next to him was enough to base a career on and a lunch was worth a paper This is one of the crumbs The methodology is sound even though the premise that the future will be like the past may not be as study Nevertheless this book is a good start for anyone that might place too much confidence in the talking heads that they might see on TV


  3. Rmancuso Rmancuso says:

    ePUB Philip E. Tetlock ì Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction PDF ì superforecasting: download, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting: The epub, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and free, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBookThe author effectively identifies key elements of what makes a good forecaster versus the pundits who almost always have it wrong His Good Judgement project employs some of the people he has identified as super forecasters and the website has links to their responses to uestions on some current events


  4. Guy J. Johnson Guy J. Johnson says:

    ePUB Philip E. Tetlock ì Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction PDF ì superforecasting: download, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting: The epub, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and free, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBookThis book was written by one of my former students He takes whatever I might have taught him and makes shineMakes me feel very proud of him


  5. abollo abollo says:

    ePUB Philip E. Tetlock ì Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction PDF ì superforecasting: download, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting: The epub, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and free, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBookSuperforecasting was a very interesting read It sheds good light on what it means to make a forecast beyond the vague statements of public figures and what the methodologies and mentalities of good forecasters look like I enjoyed it


  6. g-couture.co.uk Customer g-couture.co.uk Customer says:

    ePUB Philip E. Tetlock ì Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction PDF ì superforecasting: download, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting: The epub, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and free, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBookWorked well as a collection of anecdotes describing people who have shown better than average success in forecasting but as a teaching document that will show you how to match such success Superforecasting does not give away all of the secrets In the end


  7. Daniel Cantin Daniel Cantin says:

    ePUB Philip E. Tetlock ì Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction PDF ì superforecasting: download, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting: The epub, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and free, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBookThe lengthy historical description may seem difficult to afford at first but it has value to support the points that are exposed I have learned a lot and expect to use the method in my work Thanks for bringing these study results from the somewhat underground intelligence to the general public in an understandable and vividid manner


  8. Michael Barr Michael Barr says:

    ePUB Philip E. Tetlock ì Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction PDF ì superforecasting: download, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting: The epub, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and free, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBookThis book will become another arrow in your uiver of forecasting tools For those who try to gradually improve their forecasts this book offers an introduction to methods and will help you set off on a journey of learning


  9. Joe W. Joe W. says:

    ePUB Philip E. Tetlock ì Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction PDF ì superforecasting: download, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting: The epub, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and free, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBookI’m not being funny or anything but I bought this book because I thought it would help me sort my fantasy league team out I’m in second to last place 3 points ahead of Jimmy the Turk and I’ll level with you I’m worried Anyway Dom Cummings suggested I buy this


  10. obiwan_9000 obiwan_9000 says:

    ePUB Philip E. Tetlock ì Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction PDF ì superforecasting: download, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting: The epub, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and free, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBookThis book was recommended to me by a friend because both of us occasionally need to forecast as part of our jobs In many aspects of this book it was like reading about how granny sucked eggs A lot of the book covers theory on what makes an accurate forecast There are some nuggets of insight on good forecasting which is nicely surmised in the appendix with the 11 commandments of SuperforecastingThe issue with the book is not the material of the content but the padding There seems to be a lot of it This is a 300 page book that can be edited down to half the size without losing information Many of the same examples of Superforecasting were repeated than onceIt was funny to read that a l


  11. Eff Eff says:

    ePUB Philip E. Tetlock ì Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction PDF ì superforecasting: download, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting: The epub, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and free, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBookThis book is a great book for understanding forecasting It explains the methods and personalities of 'Superforecasters' people who Tetlock have studied who consistently outperform experts and non experts alike in forecasting future events Not perfect predictions mind you but consistently better statistically What do they do differently than ordinary people to perform so well? Tetlock gives his best explanation in this bookOne criticism I have is that I would've liked it to better slightly less popular science; include a bit hard data remove a little of the padding However even with this criticism there was much for me to learn And it did include substantial references to evidencePrediction is an extremely important component to testing whether your hypotheses are correct Th


  12. Anya Anya says:

    ePUB Philip E. Tetlock ì Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction PDF ì superforecasting: download, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting: The epub, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and free, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBookI found this a really interesting book I was very sceptical at first and the idea of superforecasters sounded like an issue of survivorship bias but the author did address this satisfactorily For the most part the book just goes through various types of logical fallacies and how you can avoid these to make accurate predictions about the future so if you know a bit about probability and logical fallacies already you won't find it much new But the story of the Good Judgment Project is very interesting and certainly worth knowing aboutCertainly in this time of COVID 19 after reading this book you'll start noticing a lot of public figures fall into basic data interpretation mistakes make predictions that turn out to be totally wrong and then continue as normal anyway


  13. Friðrik Bragi Dýrfjörð Friðrik Bragi Dýrfjörð says:

    ePUB Philip E. Tetlock ì Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction PDF ì superforecasting: download, science mobile, prediction epub, Superforecasting: The epub, Art and ebok, Art and Science of pdf, The Art and free, The Art and Science of pdf, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction eBookExperts are about as accurate as chimps when predicting the future This tidbit so often mentioned when discussing or dismissing expert opinion or predictions originates from the research of Mr Tetlock on Expert Political Judgement A natural next step was figuring out if anyone could reliably answer uestions about the not so distant future and the result was the Good Judgment P


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